Well we had our first Eurovision Semi Final last night and, as expected, Ireland qualified. So let the good times roll! Attracting votes in the final can be tough but at least its good to be there and all indications are that the performance and song is going down well. IT was the voting that interests me and is worth a look this morning. While the exact votes will not be revealed until after the final it is worth comparing with our 2013 Eurovision handbook (which you should all have bought by now in aid of the Irish Cancer Society http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-2013-Eurovision-Handbook-ebook/dp/B00CNTF0OM )
Anyway, The predictions of Adrian Kavanagh were very accurate last night. While Kavanagh liked the Austrian entry I told him it was weak enough and he agreed they had no voting record so we knew they were goosed. Slovenia and Montenegro were also in serious trouble. Based on the bookies odds, draw position and past voting this was not to be a year for Croatia either. After that it gets very tight making predictions. Russia, Denmark and Ukraine were all certain of qualification based on the past, Ireland, Estonia and Belarus were very likely, but then only a few points could separate everyone else.
In Kavanagh’s prediction there was nothing to choose between Cyprus, Belgium, Netherlands and Moldova and the latter three won out on the night.
The only shock to buck the prediction was Serbia. Statistically, Serbia should have been a cert based largely on the fact that their draw position was a perfect one to qualify from and they have a good record. Serbia failed and this was the only surprise on the night (not bad eh?). Personally I am blaming whomever got their hands on the Serbian Stage production. When I last saw these girls they were quite appealing but last night the make up and dresses were ….well…nothing short of horrific and totally overshadowed the song.
There is another point to make though. Under new voting this year an act must score well in both the Jury and Public vote and one cant compensate for a very low score in the other (in lay mans terms) so this may also change the nature of the bloc voting somewhat. So perhaps this may have affected things slightly too, certainly a stage act could be prone to upsetting one or other group.
In any event if you haven’t bought your handbook do so now, before next Thursdays competition, esome very interesting songs are competing and we will see if the model holds up for further successful predictions. It is worth noting however that Kavanagh and myself disagree on two songs at the bottom of his list for qualification, Malta and Hungary…..Kavanagh hates these but I think they have potential to upset the predictions….keep a close eye and roll on Thursday!