Johnny Fallon

Irish Political Commentator

Eurovision Final – Prediction time…..

Well the Eurovision 2013 Final is almost upon us. After a second semi final we know all the songs and the final line up. Its now time to try and call the final. This year we have quite a serious contest. Adrian Kavanagh who I assisted in writing the 2013 Eurovision hand book (which you should have bought and you still can if you follow the links Ive posted on earlier blogs) has worked very hard on a predictions model. Adrians predictions are here http://adriankavanagh.com/2013/05/17/eurovision-final-prediction-its-denmark-but-only-by-a-teardrop/

Adrian’s model is one I cannot find fault with and after some impressive semi-final predictions the model must remain the base for any other prediction. However, Adrian sometimes misses the value of a bloody great little tune! I will be shouting the names of Malta and Hungary at him all day today. In response I expect Adrian will hope both of these come last just so he can have his revenge.

So I have a duty to put my cards on the table also. When it comes to predicting I have to go with the Kavangh model, but the politician in me does what politicians do best, In James Reilly Fashion I take the model, tinker with it to suit my own ends and come up with some inexplicable results!

Essentially what I am doing here is taking Kavanagh’s figures and I adjust +/- up to 10 points to account for the ‘Fallon gut’. Some songs I would like to place higher but I cant simply because the voting history and records of the country as the Kavanagh model takes into account simply wont allow it. Other songs Id like lower but this also is unlikely due to their voting record.

So here it is, allow for the ‘Fallon Gut’ the Kavangh model total points adjusted would be as follows:

1 Denmark 175
2 Ukraine 157
3 Norway 155
4 Russia 154
5 Azerbaijan 154
6 Italy 120
7 Greece 116
8 Sweden 109
9 Georgia 108
10 Germany 99
11 Armenia 88
12 Ireland 80
13 Romania 78
14 Finland 77
15 Netherlands 76
16 Hungary 74
17 Malta 67
18 Spain 65
19 Belarus 63
20 Iceland 66
21 UK 59
22 Estonia 58
23 Moldova 55
24 Belgium 54
25 France 44
26 Lithuania 36

I should be noted that I expect Ireland to finish in top 15 but my heart could be ruling my head in an 12th spot, however I still think with a good performance top 10 is even possible.

I think Spain have a great song and it makes them very unpredictable, id like them to do much better but have to go with past voting records here. Still if you want really good odds and a very long shot bet with a tiny bit of hope well who knows?

My take confirms the bookies and I see Denmark with a greater margin of victory than Adrian does here. I also see Ukraine and Norway doing better than Russia which is a bit of a head on the block prediction alright. Those positioned from 5th to 9th represent potentially good odds bets if you fancy an each way flutter on a longer shot.

Advertisements

Single Post Navigation

2 thoughts on “Eurovision Final – Prediction time…..

  1. Peter on said:

    Or rather, will Adrian do one for next year?

    • jonny33 on said:

      Yes, Adrian does a prediction every year. Link to his blog is in the post. The prediction I make is adjusted, so you need to go to Adrian’s blog for his prediction

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: